Mozambique has seen substantial offshore natural gas discoveries since 2010, with over 5,000 bcm in estimated reserves found so far. These world-class finds have the potential to transform the economy and society. Once large-scale LNG export projects start production, forecasts suggest natural gas could account for over 50% of GDP by 2030.
Significant foreign investment is flowing into gas extraction and infrastructure megaprojects like the $23 billion Coral South FLNG development led by ENI and ExxonMobil. However, security issues in the north and increasing militant violence has raised risks for future projects.
Beyond export plans, using domestically-directed gas to fuel power generation, industry and transport can also provide major economic benefits. Gas has the potential to solve chronic electricity shortages while supporting growth in manufacturing and associated jobs.
The development of these gas deposits is expected to transform the landscape of the Mozambican economy, with the potential to make LNG the country’s single largest exporting sector and contribute up to around one third of the total exports. The discoveries have already led to a significant increase in foreign direct investment (FDI), creating new industries and jobs, and driving a growth take-off in the country.
However— there are also concerns about the economic risks associated with the gas developments. The accelerating global shift to renewables and the potential decline in demand for gas from developed markets could impact the long-term economic benefits of the gas projects.
The anticipation of natural resource revenues, particularly from the LNG sector, has been a key factor in Mozambique’s development strategy. However, it is important for the country to carefully navigate the decisions related to LNG exports to maximize the potential economic benefits and mitigate associated risks. The government’s management of the natural gas industry and the structures put in place to govern it will be crucial in ensuring that the country and its population can maximize the socio-economic impact of the gas discoveries.
