Debt Story of America - Educated but Indebted
Economic headwinds have taken hold as the United States, long considered a stalwart of navigating global fiscal exchanges, has reached its debt ceiling. As analyzed in a recent Council on Foreign Relations backgrounder, failing to raise or suspend the limit in a timely manner could have severe economic repercussions both domestically and abroad. The US reached it debt limit on August 1st and the treasury department will soon run out of cash and other reserves, leading to ultimate default.
Understanding the Debt Limit
The debt limit is a ceiling imposed by Congress on the amount of debt that the U.S. Federal government can have outstanding. When the limit is reached or a debt suspension period ends, the U.S. Treasury is no longer authorized to borrow additional funds. At that point, the Treasury can and often does take what are known as “extraordinary measures” to keep the debt subject to the limit from rising until Congress acts. For example, in August 2019, the debt ceiling, then at $22.0 trillion, was suspended for 24 months.
During this period, the Treasury borrowed an additional $6.4 trillion. When the suspension period expired in August 2021, the debt limit was reinstated at $28.4 trillion—the sum of the previous limit and the additional borrowing. In December 2021, Congress raised the debt ceiling from $28.9 trillion to $31.4 trillion, allowing borrowing to proceed until the total government borrowing reached this new limit (which finally happened on January 19, 2023).
Looming Concerns as Addressed by the FED
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has repeatedly warned about the dangers of a US debt crisis. In May 2023, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that a US debt default would be “catastrophic” and that it was “unthinkable.” Powell also said that the Fed had “limited” ability to prevent the economic damage that would result from a US debt default.
The Fed’s warnings about the US debt crisis are clear and unambiguous. The Fed is concerned about the potential for a US debt default to trigger a recession, financial market instability, and currency fluctuations. The Fed is also concerned about the potential for a US debt default to damage the US’s reputation as a reliable borrower and to make it more difficult for the US government to borrow money in the future.
Recently, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell urged Congress to increase the debt ceiling, citing the potentially catastrophic repercussions of a default on U.S. debt. A hypothetical U.S. debt default might be “extraordinarily unfavourable and wreak enduring harm,” Powell told the Senate Banking Committee.
Economic Clout of Large National Economies
The rising levels of debt seen in many nations in recent decades stem from complex economic forces. Income inequality and trade deficits have both acted to redistribute domestic savings away from consumption and investment at a national scale. While debt accumulation may temporarily sustain demand, over-reliance on credit leaves economies vulnerable to shocks by suppressing the private sector’s ability to finance growth indigenously.
It is evident the debt ceiling has become an increasingly contentious political issue with risks to the economy if not addressed credibly. While removing legislative restrictions may ease short-term pressures, it fails to remedy underlying fiscal challenges or de-escalate partisan tensions that have escalated negotiations.
A more prudent approach would incorporate guidelines and automatic triggers to facilitate timely action during downturns when needed most, while establishing a framework for open and constructive discussion of budget trade-offs. Linking debt limit discussions with viable deficit reduction plans could help refocus energy on cooperative solutions rather than brinksmanship.
Ultimately, restoring confidence will require acknowledging complex trade-offs across economic, social and political spheres. Modifying processes to promote stability, responsibility and consensus-building may establish durable safeguards against unnecessary crises moving forward. With good faith on all sides, opportunities exist to craft balanced reforms strengthening fiscal governance for the long-term.
Economic Clout of Large National Economies
Crisis weighs down the US and leans on shaky ground to keep the economy afloat, causing a domino effect on other nations. Before a BRICS currency can operate, many challenges must be overcome. In their currency debates, the BRICS nations show their interest in exploring new ideas to shake up world politics and efficiently coordinate policies around them.
Dollars account for 42% of currency transactions, according to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Transactions. Despite its 32% share, the euro has little impact outside Europe and North Africa. The Chinese yuan contributes 2% because its non-domestic use is limited within Asia and outside of trade-linked finance.
Global economies have been affected by US debt growth. No clear path exists to reduce the country’s $30 trillion debt. This excessive US borrowing has caused global financial market instability and economic uncertainty. Countries like Brazil and Russia are abandoning the US dollar to protect their economies from rising US debt.
Educated but Indebted - Ruskin Felix Consulting LLC
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