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Understanding and highlighting key trends to benchmark and assess global growth potential and global economic prospects for 2023
The world’s major economies are predicted to grow significantly below average. The global recessions brought on by the pandemic and the global financial crisis are projected to cause the third poorest growth in nearly three decades in 2023.
Forecasts for inflation based on models and surveys both indicate that the core and non-core components of the global CPI inflation peaked in late 2022 and will progressively slow as activity weakens, and the cost of numerous commodities levels off.
While still higher above the average of 2015–19 of 2.3 per cent, inflation is predicted to decrease from 7.6 per cent in 2022 to 5.2 per cent in 2023 and 3.2 per cent in 2024.
Inflation around the globe for the short term is predicted to be high due to various reasons like an invasion, and global imbalance in the supply chain market.
To combat inflation, major economies are raising interest rates. It is predicted that interest rates will rise in the short term, as shown in the figure.
EMDE regions face numerous spillovers from the darkening global economic outlook, along with weakening domestic conditions. The forecast for growth in 2023 and 2024 combined has been downgraded for every EMDE region since June.
Macroeconomic authorities must avoid increasing policy uncertainty, which could put additional pressure on global financial markets already under pressure from rising borrowing costs and generate additional negative spill overs to growth.
Food price inflation has risen significantly across all EMDE regions (figure). Rising food prices have adversely affected food insecurity and increased the number of people suffering from hunger.
Global Economic Prospects 2023 - Ruskin Felix Consulting LLC
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